September 2nd, 2015 (Permalink)

The Case of the Three Puzzling Statements

A crime has been committed by a single criminal, and the police have brought in a three-man gang of crooks for questioning. Before their lawyer arrived, each of the suspects gave a brief statement but, afterward, each refused to answer any further questions or make any additional statements.

The following are the three statements made by the suspects; the names have been changed to protect the innocent:

Tom: I didn't do it! One of the other two did it.

Dick: Tom didn't do it! Listen to him, he's innocent!

Harry: I did it! I confess, I'm guilty!

Based on Harry's confession, the district attorney plans to indict him for the crime. The police are convinced that one of the three crooks is guilty of the crime, and that each of them knows who did it. They are also sure that at least one of the trio told the truth, and that at least one lied, but they don't know who was who. Assuming that the police are correct in their conclusions, would the D. A. be making a mistake to indict Harry? Can you tell from the information given who the culprit is?


August 28th, 2015 (Permalink)

Wikipedia Watch

Wikipedia is free. It’s understandable that people don’t like to look a gift horse in the mouth. But no one should fool themselves into thinking that the nag they got for free is an Arabian racehorse.―Andreas Kolbe

A bunch of recent articles about Wikipedia are worth a read if you're interested:

August 14th, 2015 (Permalink)

The Puddle Fallacy

"Remarquez bien que les nez ont été faits pour porter des lunettes; aussi avons-nous des lunettes. Les jambes sont visiblement instituées pour être chaussées, et nous avons des chausses. Les pierres ont été formées pour être taillées et pour en faire des châteaux; aussi monseigneur a un très beau château…; et les cochons étant faits pour être mangés, nous mangeons du porc toute l'année…."―Voltaire, Candide, ou L'Optimisme, Chapitre I (Translation)

Steven Novella has written a sequel to his earlier article about Eric Metaxas that I linked to previously―see the Resource, below, if you're interested. The sequel is prompted by a video version of the Metaxas article that Novella and I criticized earlier, so I don't have anything new to add. However, Novella does have at least one thing new to add:

Metaxas is…making the classic “puddle” fallacy―that of a puddle of water marveling at the fact that the hole in which it exists was perfectly formed to hold it. Obviously it is the water that is conforming to the hole.
Source: Steven Novella, "Does Science Prove God?", Neurologica, 8/13/2015

I don't know how "classic" this supposed fallacy is, since I've never heard of it before, at least not under that name. In fact, I can only find one other use of the term "puddle fallacy" on the web, and that's in a comment on a blog where it's given the longer name "arrogant puddle fallacy". Apparently, the name comes from the following passage from a speech by science fiction author Douglas Adams:

…[E]arly man is thinking, 'This world fits me very well. Here are all these things that support me and feed me and look after me; yes, this world fits me nicely' and he reaches the inescapable conclusion that whoever made it, made it for him. This is rather as if you imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, 'This is…an interesting hole I find myself in―fits me rather neatly, doesn't it? In fact it fits me staggeringly well, must have been made to have me in it!'
Source: Douglas Adams, "Is there an Artificial God?", Biota, 9/1998

As you can see, Adams didn't name it or even specifically call it a "fallacy", though he did earlier refer to this type of thinking as "fallacious". I've also seen Adams' argument referred to as "the puddle analogy", since it draws an analogy between the self-centered puddle, and early man.

However, the type of argument criticized as a "puddle fallacy" is a familiar one, though not under that name. It was made fun of by Voltaire in Candide centuries ago, as you can see from the epigraph, above. I'm not satisfied with the name "puddle fallacy" because, unless you happen to be familiar with Adams' little analogy, the name does not suggest what the mistake is. We might just as well go back to Voltaire and call it "the spectacles fallacy" or "the socks fallacy". Even better would be "the Pangloss fallacy", since it's the character of Dr. Pangloss who speaks the quoted passage. Again, though, unless you know Candide this wouldn't ring any bells, and even then some might think that it refers to Pangloss' optimism.

A better name would be one that gets at the nature of the mistake committed. In Adams' analogy, the egotistical puddle reverses the direction of adaptation, as the puddle adapts itself to the shape of the hole, rather than vice versa. Similarly, eyeglasses are designed for people's noses and socks are made to fit legs, rather than the reverse.

Of course, these examples are exaggerations designed to mock the views of those such as Pangloss and Metaxas who see a world about them carefully tailored to meet their needs. As Novella puts it: "…[L]ife evolved to adapt to the conditions on Earth, and it is just as absurd as the puddle to think that Earth was made to perfectly support the life that is on it."

Resource: "The Fine-Tuning Argument Strikes Again!", 1/8/2015

Translation: "Note well that the nose was made to hold up spectacles; and so we wear spectacles. The legs are visibly shaped for socks, and we wear socks. Stones have been formed to be quarried and made into chateaus; and so His Grace has a very beautiful chateau…; and pigs were made to be eaten―we eat pork all year long…."

August 1st, 2015 (Permalink)

The Case of the Two Puzzling Statements

The police have questioned three suspects about a crime that was committed by a single perpetrator. The first suspect refused to answer any questions and demanded to see a lawyer. The second suspect made the following statement: "I confess. I did it. I committed the crime." The third suspect made the statement: "I didn't do it! One of the other two did it." The suspects' lawyers then showed up and, on the advice of those attorneys, each suspect refused to answer any questions or make any further statements.

The police are sure of only two facts: First, if the suspect who committed the crime made a statement, it was false. Second, at least one of the suspects gave a true statement.

Given the second suspect's confession, the police chief plans to recommend that the district attorney prosecute the second suspect. Are the police and the D.A. about to prosecute an innocent person?

Assuming that the police are right about the two facts, above, should the D.A. go ahead with the prosecution of the second suspect? Would the D.A. be prosecuting the wrong suspect? Can you determine which suspect committed the crime? If you think you can, click on "Solution" below to find out whodunnit.


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