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May 2nd, 2025 (Permalink)

New Book: An Abundance of Caution

Quote: "School closures…don't only affect children. … Their closure en masse was the rarest of public policies, one that knocked society off its axis, and the decisions that set it in motion were made incredibly quickly―and without a notion of their impact or when things would return to normal. This book is an anatomy of that historic decision-making process and the many that would follow in its wake regarding schools during the coronavirus pandemic. … We see how incentives that were misaligned with the interests of the public often drove decisions. We see how authority figures' influence was channeled through the media and, in turn, how the media influenced the authorities and regular citizens. We also see how the nature of news, and the muddling effect of the media's penchant for anecdotes and the spectacular, obscured mundane and nuanced reality. Lastly, we witness how ideological tribalism and groupthink overrode long-established values…."1

Title: An Abundance of Caution

Subtitle: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions

Comment: The subtitle and excerpt, above, indicate that the book is entirely, or at least primarily, devoted to the bad decisions during the pandemic that related to American schools. Since some of the worst decision-making at the time was that which affected children, this limitation may actually exaggerate how bad decisions were in general, though they were certainly bad enough.

Author: David Zweig

Comment: Zweig is one of the few mainstream journalists during the pandemic who didn't swallow the government's propaganda line, including hook and sinker, and I recommended two of his articles at the time2. He was also one of the journalists given access to the Twitter files3.

Date: 2025

Summary: The book is divided into four parts and, since I haven't read it yet and Zweig doesn't explain the book's structure in the preface or introduction, I'm going to have to guess, based on the titles of the parts and their chapters, what they are about:

  1. "Seductive Models": I don't think this part is about Heidi Klum and Kate Moss, but I could be wrong. Rather, I think it's about the computer models, such as that of Imperial College London (ICL), which influenced early decision-making about how to respond to the pandemic4. The second chapter is entitled "GIGO", which is an old computer science acronym for "Garbage In, Garbage Out". Applied to computer models, "GIGO" means that the predictions produced by a model will be only as good as the information they are based on5.
  2. "The Illusion of the Precautionary Principle": It's difficult to say exactly what the Precautionary Principle (PP) is, which is partly due to it not being a single principle but a family of related ones6. However, the fundamental idea is that one should avoid acting unless the action to be taken is known to be harmless, or at least less harmful than not acting. As such, the PP is a generalization of such common sense principles as the ancient medical precept of "primum no nocere"7―"first do no harm"―and slogans such as "safety first", "better safe than sorry" and "look before you leap".

    I'm unsure what Zweig has in mind in this part of the book, especially by the reference in the title to "the illusion" of the PP. If the PP had been consistently applied during the pandemic, many things that did happen would not have happened, such as the shutting down of schools. There was no evidence that shutting down schools for an extended period of time, such as a school year, would be harmless, or even less harmful than the tiny risk to children from the coronavirus. In addition, if the so-called lab leak hypothesis is correct, the PP surely should have ruled out the "gain-of-function" research that may have created the specific coronavirus that leaked from the lab, in which case there would have been no pandemic at all.

  3. "Tribalism, Public Health, the Elite, and the Media": It seems clear what this part is about, namely, the way in which people during the pandemic were forced to join certain "tribes". One of these tribes is identified in the title of the first chapter in this part: "If Trump is for it, then we're against it". Of course, there was also an "if Trump is for it, then we're for it" tribe. Tribalism and "Groupthink"―the title of chapter 15―no doubt contributed to bad decision-making during the pandemic since certain policy positions became political. As a result, you could usually predict a person's position on pandemic policies based on which party they supported; that this is a bad way to make decisions about scientific and medical matters ought to be obvious.
  4. "Progressive Dogma and Narrative Control": I'm even less sure what this part is about than part 2, though perhaps "narrative control" refers to the propaganda put out by the progressive media. Possibly it also denotes the efforts at censoring critics of the government's response to the pandemic undertaken by the Democrats after Biden's election gave them control of that response.

The Blurbs: The book is blurbed favorably by Marty Makary8, Nate Silver and Matt Taibbi.

Disclaimer: I haven't read this book yet, so can't review or recommend it, but its topic interests me and may also interest readers. The above remarks are based solely on a sample of the book.


Notes:

  1. "Introduction", pp. 2-3.
  2. See: Unmasking the CDC & Manufacturing Fear, 12/28/2021 and Rigging the Debate & Over-counting the Dead, 1/31/2023.
  3. David Zweig, accessed: 5/2/2025.
  4. See: Stephanie Glen, "What Went Wrong with Pandemic Modeling?", Data Science Central, 8/23/2021.
  5. Herman & Leo Schneider, The Harper Dictionary of Science in Everyday Language (1988).
  6. Tanja Rechnitzer, "Precautionary Principles", Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, accessed: 5/2/2025. Everything you wanted to know about PPs, and then some.
  7. Eugene Ehrlich, Veni, Vidi, Vici: Conquer Your Enemies, Impress Your Friends with Everyday Latin (1995).
  8. See: New Book, 3/27/2025.

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